Nowcasting U.S. Economic Activity

July 24, 2023

Innovative model uses RavenPack sentiment to improve GDP predictions.

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The US economy continues to drive global markets, and obtaining reliable and timely updates on its evolution gives investors a competitive edge to navigate uncertainties, and fine-tune their strategies. RavenPackhas published a paper describing the results of a new nowcasting model that uses sentiment analytics to predict economic activity in the US in real time.

Using RavenPack Event Taxonomy and Analytics over a 30-day period provides the best contribution by highlighting specific narratives and recent events. The research has identified that adding RavenPack Analytics reduces average nowcast prediction errors by up to 70%.

The RavenPack nowcasting model (NC-RP) is valuable in terms of timeliness and accuracy. It improves over autoregressive models (AR(1)), nowcasting models based on hard data (NC-B), and US Federal institution benchmarks such as GDPNow, maintained by the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta and the Survey of Professional Forecasters of the Philadelphia Fed (SPF).

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RavenPack Nowcasting accurately and promptly predicts real-time economic variables. It is based on a cutting-edge combination of low-frequency macroeconomic variables and high-frequency sentiment indicators.