November 27, 2023
Using a cutting-edge approach that incorporates at a large scale low-frequency macro-economic variables with high-frequency sentiment indicators, RavenPack is able to nowcast China's macroeconomic indicators with enhanced accuracy and timeliness.
Nowcasting models are an invaluable tool for policymakers and financial professionals, providing timely updates on key economic indicators like gross domestic product (GDP), inflation, employment, and industrial production.
Leveraging RavenPack Analytics, a state-of-the-art nowcasting model is applied to predict Chinese macroeconomic activity in real time, demonstrating its potential as a powerful forecasting tool.
Observations reveal:
The addition of RavenPack Analytics to the model improves performance in terms of the out-of-sample forecasting error by up to 9%, depending on the prediction period.
RavenPack Analytics is valuable in terms of timeliness and accuracy, particularly when there is a lack of macroeconomic data.
RavenPack Analytics aggregated with a decaying factor over a short horizon (30 days) provides the best contribution as recent events are emphasized.
Please use your business email. If you don't have one, please email us at info@ravenpack.com.
By providing your personal information and submitting your details, you acknowledge that you have read, understood, and agreed to our Privacy Statement and you accept our Terms and Conditions. We will handle your personal information in compliance with our Privacy Statement. You can exercise your rights of access, rectification, erasure, restriction of processing, data portability, and objection by emailing us at privacy@ravenpack.com in accordance with the GDPRs. You also are agreeing to receive occasional updates and communications from RavenPack about resources, events, products, or services that may be of interest to you.
Your request has been recorded and a team member will be in touch soon.
In this presentation, Paolo Andreini, Senior Data Scientist at RavenPack, introduced a macroeconomic nowcasting model,based on RavenPack EDGE, that can help predict real-time economic activity.
RavenPack presents a macroeconomic nowcasting model that leverages its EDGE data platform to predict real-time economic activity of four important emerging market economies: Brazil, Russia, India and South Africa.