Michigan State Univ, Rutgers Business School & Prime Quantitative Research LLC
| August 02, 2017
The authors decompose daily stock returns into news- and non-news driven components, using a comprehensive sample of intraday firm-level news arrivals matched with high-frequency movements of their stock prices.
The extensive literature on return predictability has established an interesting array of facts regarding the dynamics of individual stock returns. In particular, whereas short-horizon stock returns within the past month and long-horizon returns in the past 3-5 years exhibit
reversals, returns in the period of 3-12 months show a pattern of continuation in the subsequent 3-12 months. This finding on the stock price momentum has received widespread attention, and generated substantial controversy among financial economists regarding its
implications for market efficiency.
In this paper, the authors exploit this insight to contribute to the literature on return predictability.
To better understand
the source of the news momentum
, we follow Lo and MacKinlay (1990), decomposing the expected news momentum profit into three components...
The authors examine the relation between news return and future stock returns.
And they start with a simple news momentum strategy using univariate sorts, and then perform multivariate regressions to further assess the incremental information contained in news returns. Next,
they compare the news momentum strategy with other investment strategies
, such as size, value, price momentum, and short-term return reversal, and conclude this section with an analysis of transaction costs.
In this subsection, the authors examine the cross-sectional determinants of the news momentum effect to shed further light on its nature. Specifically, they study whether
the performance of the news momentum strategy concentrates
among stocks with certain characteristics, including firm size, analyst coverage, volatility, illiquidity, and past returns.
In this section, the authors perform an in-depth analysis of overnight news, which has received relatively little attention in the literature. Using an intraday event study approach, they find compelling evidence for delayed reaction to overnight news, which constitutes more than half of our sample. It lends further support to underreaction as the
main driver of news
The strategy’s profitability is driven by positive serial correlations in individual stock returns, and is particularly pronounced for overnight and weekend news and among small firms.
The white paper's conclusion suggests that investor under-reaction to news, coupled with limits to arbitrage, drives
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We consider incorporating sentiment signals from news, earnings call transcripts, and insider transactions to
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We find stronger, more predictable market reactions when the words of company executives agree with their actions.
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