Predict Inflation Rates Today

Access daily predictions of month-over-month US Core and Headline inflation rates from the analysis of news and macroeconomic indicators.

RavenPack Inflation Nowcasting indicators leverage machine learning models to deliver a daily prediction of Core CPI and Headline CPI: a Backcast which estimates, on a daily basis, the inflation value of the previous month until official figures are released, and a Nowcast of inflation figures expected to be effective by the end of the month.

Power Tracking

The Pulse of the US Economy

The value and evolution of these indicators can help quantitative and discretionary investors:

Inflation Nowcasting Performance

Each indicator provides information about the level of inflation uncertainty, and expected value:

Month-to-month Core CPI

Inflation State Probability
Low (<0%)
Medium-Low (0–0.16%)
Medium-High (0.16–0.33%)
High (>0.33%)
Median:
Mean:
Mode:
Actual:

Month-to-month Headline CPI

Inflation State Probability
Low (<0%)
Medium-Low (0–0.16%)
Medium-High (0.16–0.33%)
High (>0.33%)
Median:
Mean:
Mode:
Actual:
'
UNDER THE HOOD

Computing Inflation Indicators

Backcasts and nowcasts are the outcome of a multi-step process that includes:

Content Collection

RavenPack analyzes textual content from high-quality sources to identify events that are relevant to the US economy. Documents considered include articles, news flash, tabular materials, and transcripts.

Information Extraction

Additional filters ensure the data remains focused on contemporary observations, and relevant organizations. Variables used to predict inflation identify the most important and influential factors likely to affect prices in the future, from monetary and fiscal policy, to global economic conditions, supply and demand factors, and other economic indicators.

Analytics Enrichment

For each event identified, RavenPack uses sentiment analysis approaches to compute a score by matching stories usually categorized by financial experts as having a positive or negative financial or economic impact.

Signal Construction

Over 30 predictors are used in the model with RavenPack variables accounting for at least 50% of them.

Indicator Composition

The indicator delivers a distribution curve that enables users to compute risk and uncertainty around inflation projections, as well as pre-computed probabilities of observing inflation within specific classes (<0%, 0-0.166%, 0.166-0.333%,>0.333% for month-to-month inflation).

Inflation Indicators Facts
Purpose
  • Anticipate Official Releases
  • Inform Investment Strategies
FrequencyDaily
FormatCSV
HistorySince 2008
UniverseUS Macro
Content
  • When the prediction was producted
  • When the prediction will be effective (month end)
  • Mean, Median, Standard Deviation and Skewness of the predicted distribution
  • Percentiles of the distribution (5th, 10th, 25th, 75th, 90th, 95th)
  • Probability of a low inflation state (<0%)
  • Probability of a medium-low inflation state (0-0.166%)
  • Probability of a medium-high inflation state (0.166-0.333%)
  • Probability of a high inflation state (>0.333%)
  • model: CPI_CORE or CPI_HEADLINE
  • output: BACKCAST or NOWCAST
Delivery RavenPack, Snowflake

Access Inflation Indicators


By providing your personal information and submitting your details, you acknowledge that you have read, understood, and agreed to our Privacy Statement and you accept our Terms and Conditions. We value your privacy and assure you that we will handle your personal information with the utmost care and in compliance with our Privacy Statement. You can exercise your rights of access, rectification, erasure, restriction of processing, data portability, and objection by emailing us at privacy@ravenpack.com. In accordance with the General Data Protection Rules (GDPR). You also are agreeing to receive occasional updates and communications from RavenPack about resources, events, products, or services that may be of interest to you.