Predict Inflation Rates Today

Access daily predictions of month-over-month US Core and Headline inflation rates from the analysis of news and macroeconomic indicators.

RavenPack Inflation Nowcasting indicators leverage machine learning models to deliver a daily prediction of Core CPI and Headline CPI: a Backcast which estimates, on a daily basis, the inflation value of the previous month until official figures are released, and a Nowcast of inflation figures expected to be effective by the end of the month.

Power Tracking

The Pulse of the US Economy

The value and evolution of these indicators can help quantitative and discretionary investors:

Inflation Nowcasting Performance

Each indicator provides information about the level of inflation uncertainty, and expected value:

Month-to-month Core CPI

Inflation State Probability
Low (<0%)
Medium-Low (0–0.16%)
Medium-High (0.16–0.33%)
High (>0.33%)

Month-to-month Headline CPI

Inflation State Probability
Low (<0%)
Medium-Low (0–0.16%)
Medium-High (0.16–0.33%)
High (>0.33%)

Computing Inflation Indicators

Backcasts and nowcasts are the outcome of a multi-step process that includes:

Content Collection

RavenPack analyzes textual content from high-quality sources to identify events that are relevant to the US economy. Documents considered include articles, news flash, tabular materials, and transcripts.

Information Extraction

Additional filters ensure the data remains focused on contemporary observations, and relevant organizations. Variables used to predict inflation identify the most important and influential factors likely to affect prices in the future, from monetary and fiscal policy, to global economic conditions, supply and demand factors, and other economic indicators.

Analytics Enrichment

For each event identified, RavenPack uses sentiment analysis approaches to compute a score by matching stories usually categorized by financial experts as having a positive or negative financial or economic impact.

Signal Construction

Over 30 predictors are used in the model with RavenPack variables accounting for at least 50% of them.

Indicator Composition

The indicator delivers a distribution curve that enables users to compute risk and uncertainty around inflation projections, as well as pre-computed probabilities of observing inflation within specific classes (<0%, 0-0.166%, 0.166-0.333%, >0.333% for month-to-month inflation).

Inflation Indicators Facts
  • Anticipate Official Releases
  • Inform Investment Strategies
  • Boost strategies driven by business cycles
HistorySince 2008
UniverseUS Macro
  • When the prediction was producted
  • When the prediction will be effective (month end)
  • Mean, Median, Standard Deviation and Skewness of the predicted distribution
  • Percentiles of the distribution (5th, 10th, 25th, 75th, 90th, 95th)
  • Probability of a low inflation state (<0%)
  • Probability of a medium-low inflation state (0-0.166%)
  • Probability of a medium-high inflation state (0.166-0.333%)
  • Probability of a high inflation state (>0.333%)
  • output: BACKCAST or NOWCAST
Delivery RavenPack, Snowflake

Access Inflation Indicators

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