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Predicting a Historic Election with News Analysis
Predicting a Historic Election with News Analysis. How well did our monitor forecast the 2020 presidential election? Joe Biden won the presidential election by 306 electoral votes to Trump’s 229. The result is very close to RavenPack’s forecast of a Biden victory by a mean of 313 votes to 225 for Trump and places our prediction within 3% of the expected nationwide result.
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RavenPack Indicator Warned of Latest UK Lockdown, Election News Eclipses COVID, RavenPack Data in Academic Studies
In this update, we focus on how our Coronavirus monitor is reflecting the hype around the U.S. Presidential Election, we revisit our lockdown indicator to see how well it would have forecasted the new lockdown in the UK, and we highlight some noteworthy academic studies from the rising tide of research making use of our Coronavirus data.
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Final Stretch: Are Election Polls Wrong in these 6 US States?
RavenPack uses Artificial Intelligence to analyze sentiment, media attention and historical voting patterns to predict the US presidential election next week. Our model has accurately predicted the winner in 4 out of the last 5 elections.
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China’s Covid Miracle and Coronavirus News About the U.S. Election
In this update, we focus in on the country where it all started - China, and the impressive way in which it has managed to limit the virus’ spread and turn around its economy, as well as the link between levels of Covid news about the U.S. elections and candidates’ winning chances.
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How News About Black Lives Matter Impacts on Trump’s Winning Chances and other Monitor Highlights
In this update, Biden’s lead narrows after he loses North Carolina but this is balanced by gains elsewhere, and how the news about ‘Black Lives Matter’ is linked to Trump’s chances of winning and the election in general.
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Trump Widens Lead in Arizona; Battleground States Remain Hotly Contested; Media Attention on Trump and the Economy Impacting Walmart Stock Price
In this update, our monitor is still forecasting Biden to win the election. We look at how the race is going in key battleground states and the relationship between Walmart’s share price and the percentage of news about the economy
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Coronavirus Media Hype Hits 3-mo High as More Celebrities Test Positive, and Update on Coronavirus “Infected” Stocks
In this update, the Media Hype Index hits an almost 3-month high as news about COVID increases, Panic levels rise on the day Trump returns to the White House, and how talk of celebrities being infected becomes a dominant theme in the news.
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Trump Projected to Win Nevada, Minnesota in the Balance, AUD to Rise on Biden Win
In this update, the election monitor shows Biden still in the lead despite Nevada now forecast to fall to Trump; the swing state of Minnesota is in the balance; the monitor and the televised debate; and how the Australian Dollar is tipped to rise in the event of a Biden victory.
Latest Research Papers
News Sentiment as a Factor For Enhancing Quantitative Investment Strategies for Asia Pacific Stocks
In this study, RavenPack data scientists sought to isolate and quantify the additional value provided by news sentiment both by itself and on top of other more traditional factors in trading Asia Pacific equities.
Forex, Carry, Value, and Momentum - Boosted by Sentiment?
The multi-trillion Dollar FX market was the focus of our latest study which sought to find out whether traditional factors such as Carry, Value and Momentum could be enhanced with news sentiment.
Trading Around the Earnings Calendar
Our recent data science study about calendar earnings changes and news sentiment shows evidence of alpha generation
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