Data-Driven Election Forecasts From RavenPack - and Others; The Impact of "Anger" on Winning Chances
In this update, our monitor’s assessment of Trump and Biden’s winning chances, forecasts from other major monitors, and news about “Anger” and how it impacts on different candidates’ projections.
Media Attention all about vaccines led by Sputnik V; Panic & other COVID Indexes ease lower; Global sentiment pushes higher with UK at forefront
Our latest review of the monitor’s insights of the news analytics of the evolving pandemic. Is the media over COVID? Sputnik V & other vaccines. UK leading global sentiment. Read more here
Biden Extends Lead as N.Carolina Flips Blue and Why Traditional Polls Have Fallen Out of Favour?
In this update, our 2020 election monitor shows Biden increasing his lead with a 108 electoral college vote projected win and a look at why official opinion polls keep getting it wrong.
Forecasts From Leading Monitors, Trump’s Visceral Appeal in 2020, New Feature Allows Comparisons With Polls
In this update, the Rebublican National Convention boosted Trump’s campaign but is it enough? What are leading election monitors forecasting? A new feature on the RavenPack monitor enables comparisons with polls and 2016 projections.
Enhancements to our 2020 Electoral Monitor Enable Greater Insights and Analysis
New features allow the comparison of 2020 model predictions to official polls and 2016 projections, with visual highlights of key divergences.
Worldwide Panic Hits 1-Month High, Media Covid Fatigue, Why the Mortality Rate is Lower For Spain’s Second Wave
In this update, the monitor’s panic needle twerks higher as a second wave rolls in, news coverage of COVID falls to only 33%, and though cases in Spain surge they are accompanied by much lower fatalities.
Biden Still Leading, U.S. Dominated by Positive Democrat Sentiment, Biden’s Impact on Stock Sectors
In our latest election monitor update Biden increases his lead still further, the U.S. map turns blue as Democrat sentiment dominates, and an analysis of how sensitive stock sectors have been impacted by changing election expectations.
Biden Lengthens His Lead, Is Media Exposure a Good or Bad Thing? Biden Sentiment Even Higher
In this update, Biden’s lead lengthens, media exposure can be a double-edged blade, and a pattern on Biden’s sentiment chart suggests a breakout higher. Read more.
Forecasting Second Lockdowns and their Macro-Economic Impact Using RavenPack
This article looks at how alternative data can forewarn investors of the reintroduction of economically damaging lockdown measures and further to estimate the impact of such measures on the economy
Latest Research Papers
Trading Around the Earnings Calendar
Our recent data science study about calendar earnings changes and news sentiment shows evidence of alpha generation
Market Overreactions after Negative ESG News - A Global Phenomenon?
Ethical investing considerations are now so pronounced they are impacting on market structure, but how widespread is the phenomenon outside the U.S.? A recent study investigates.
European Insider Transactions Strategies Overlaid with Sentiment
Trades made by company insiders can offer clues as to future market direction - and whilst prior studies have proven its efficacy at a global level, how well does it perform for European stocks?
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