RavenPack COVID-19 Update | July 02, 2020
In our latest update, we track the news analytics of a possible emerging second wave, news sentiment peaks in France on falling hospitalizations, and we take a tour of the key analytical gauges on our news monitor and how investors can use them in their decision-making.
Go To Coronavirus News Monitor
Second wave fears appear to now be materializing. Certain U.S. states have seen an an acceleration in numbers of new cases . The worst-hit tend to be those states where lockdown measures were eased earliest, such as Texas.
The COVID monitor’s Panic Index measures the percentage of the news about coronavirus mentioning panic or hysteria and, in the past, it has been found to have leading properties for changes in numbers of cases.
It is interesting to observe that the U.S. Panic Index spiked on June 29 as reports of an acceleration in U.S. cases started to gain traction.
Overlaying panic with the U.S. case count as a whole, highlights the correspondence between the two.
The U.S. ‘relapse’ was further reflected in spikes in certain relevant related topics such as ‘Death Toll Climbing’, which saw its co-mentions spike to over 10.0% of Coronavirus news, also on June 29.
The U.S. is not the only country to see a second wave of outbreaks - in the UK, authorities took the unusual step of reinstating lockdown measures in the city of Leicester after a spike in cases was observed there.
If we look at the UK version of the Panic Index we note a similar spike in the Index on June 29.
French Coronavirus news sentiment rose to a new record 2020 high on July 1 on the back of positive news that the number of people in hospitals fell from 8,688 to 8,536 and the number of sufferers in ICUs fell to 602 from 619.
The chart below shows how French COVID sentiment has risen as the number of deaths has plateaued.
This week we highlight the 6 major indexes positioned down the left-hand side of the monitor and provide the main COVID-19 news analytics features on the dashboard.
Some of the indexes, such as the Panic, Sentiment, and Media Hype, have been found at times to foreshadow changes in the actual spread of the pandemic or to correlate with financial market asset price fluctuations.
The Worldwide Coronavirus News Sentiment Index , for example, which measures aggregate sentiment regarding the pandemic, bottomed on March 31 not long after U.S. stocks did. Since then - like the stock market it has continued rising.
The U.S. Media Hype Index provides another example. This measures the percentage of all news that is about COVID-19, and it also peaked at around the same time Sentiment and the stock market bottomed at the end of March, as shown in the chart below.
In this way, the indexes can provide important confirmatory evidence for broader societal and financial market changes.
Users can click on any of the individual index widgets to open new pop-out chart windows for enhanced settings and to conduct analysis and comparisons.
These pop-out windows combine various time-frame options from year-to-date to 1 day time-frames and weekly and monthly in between.
Two comparison menus, on the right at the top of the chart enable cross index and country comparisons, and a news feed along the right-hand side shows the stories behind the data.
The chart allows for comparisons with other indexes, or the same index from other countries . The Panic Indexes for two separate countries like France and Germany can be compared, for example, by using the menus at the top of the chart to select the chart required for comparison, as shown in the chart below.
The Fake News Index measures the amount of news that makes mention of fake news or misinformation.
The Infodemic Index measures the level of cross-asset contagion due to the coronavirus, with significant financial market implications.
The Coronavirus Media Coverage Index gives a percentage representing the share of news sources that are about COVID-19.
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