RavenPack COVID-19 Update
| July 17, 2020
In this issue, the news analytics of lockdown, chatter about school closures spikes, announcing the launch of our U.S. Presidential Election Monitor, and we highlight an advanced feature of the COVID-19 monitor.
Go To Coronavirus News Monitor
The Coronavirus news monitor is showing that a spike in the share of news mentioning “lockdown” reflects the fact that many countries are reintroducing measures to stop the spread of a second wave of coronavirus cases.
This is most clearly shown in the example of Australia, where co-mentions recently hit a 3-month high after a surge in cases in Melbourne prompted authorities to place the whole state of Victoria back under lockdown, and where neighboring New South Wales has now also started to introduce
social distancing measures
, including banning ‘singing, dancing, and mingling at weddings’.
Lockdown is also dominating the news in other countries too, with the topic ranked highest by media exposure in 11 out of the 20 countries with the highest number of coronavirus cases, based on July 16 data.
The continued closure of schools and its impact on children is another topic that has seen a rise in column inches.
The topic of “School Closures” saw a massive spike higher in the news about COVID-19 in UK Spain and Italy.
Schools in all 3 countries remain closed until the autumn term. In the UK primary schools reopened temporarily in June before closing after just a week, and apart from that, are only open to the children of key workers and those sitting GCSEs.
Our 2020 U.S. Presidential Election Monitor is now live, enabling users to access forecasts of which candidate is likely to win based on our news analytics model.
The monitor includes state-level analytics, an interactive map, news sentiment, media exposure and model projections.
to visit the monitor and sign up for an election monitor newsletter with updates and insights.
Lying below the interactive map on the media monitor is the Media Exposure Table which shows changes in the share of the news about COVID for countries and key sectors.
On the default setting, countries are shown listed along with their COVID sentiment and media exposure, and 1-day percentage changes.
At the top of the table is a list of selections that users can toggle through and select. These include heavily-impacted industry groups - such as Pharmaceuticals. Airlines and Tourism - Treatments, including drugs such as Remdesivir and vaccines under trial. The ‘Politicians’ selection re-loads the table to show lists of world leaders relevant to COVID.
Selecting on ‘Treatments’ refills the table with lists of Coronavirus drugs along with their media exposure and percentage daily change.
has shown that in the case of Pharmaceutical stocks, levels of media exposure often provide a leading indicator to higher future returns, and the principle may be more widely applicable.
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We consider incorporating sentiment signals from news, earnings call transcripts, and insider transactions to
boost the risk-adjusted returns, and revive factor performance.
We find stronger, more predictable market reactions when the words of company executives agree with their actions.
We have gathered 12 insights from 2021 research that can be leveraged in 2022.