Final Stretch: Are Election Polls Wrong in these 6 US States?

Key takeaways

• Our model disagrees with polls in 6 key states: Arizona, Georgia, Iowa, Nebraska, Nevada, and Minnesota.
• Biden is leading in 7 out of the 13 battleground states
• Nevada has seen the largest swing of 35.1% to Trump over the last week
• Biden is forecast to win the election by a wide margin

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RACE ENTERS FINAL STRETCH

Biden is leading Trump as the race to the White House enters the final bend, with our election monitor projecting Biden to win by 307 electoral college votes (ECV) to Trump’s 231.

Minnesota and Nevada are 2 key marginal states that have swung to Trump in the last week but this was balanced out by a swing in projections for North Carolina to Biden, who is now 55.7% likely to take the state.

STATES WHERE OUR MONITOR AND POLLS DISAGREE

When official polling data and our projections agree they tend to provide the basis for a more confident forecast; likewise when they clash it can be a sign that polls may be out.

The monitor has a feature that automatically highlights states where there is non-confirmation between polling data and monitor projections by adding a cross-hatch. At the time of writing, Nevada, Minnesota, and Arizona are all key marginals showing disagreement. The same goes for the not so marginal seats of Iowa, Nebraska, and Georgia, as shown in the table below.

It is interesting to note that in all the states where there is non-confirmation Trump is shown as leading by the monitor and Biden by the polls.

Historically the monitor is the more accurate, which suggests all the states will probably fall to Trump. As such, this should not change the monitor’s overall projected outcome, and Biden should still probably win by a large margin - it will, however, indicate that polls may be overstating the extent of Biden’s popular support.

BATTLEGROUND UPDATE

Biden is leading in 7 out of the 13 battleground states we regularly keep an eye on (see table below), Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Florida, New Hampshire, Maine, and North Carolina.

Trump meanwhile leads in Minnesota, Nevada, Arizona, Georgia, Ohio, and Texas.

The largest swings since our last update a week ago, have occurred in Nevada (+35.1% to Trump), North Carolina (+23.7 to Biden), and New Hampshire (-18.6 to Biden).

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Best Regards - Team RavenPack