Sentiment Reverses, Insider Trading Data for Market Turns, A Breakthrough for the Vaccine..?

RavenPack COVID-19 Update | May 07, 2020

The tide turns as key sentiment indices show compelling reversal insignia reflecting phase ‘opendown’ and rising prophylactic optimism.

Key Takeaways

  • Media hype for covid-19 edges below the key 50% level
  • Worldwide news sentiment surges higher as optimism returns
  • Using insider trading data on our platform can help traders time market turns

Go To Coronavirus News Monitor

Less Than Half of News About Covid-19

On May 1 the Worldwide Media Hype Index on our news monitor showed for the first time in months that less than half of all global news was about Covid-19.

Not since March 14 had the index fallen below 50%; it had been in decline ever since it peaked at 69.27% on March 30.

Coronavirus Media Hype

From a technical perspective, falling below the 50% could also represent a breach of the ‘neckline’ for a topping pattern on the Index. If so it may spell further weakness to come.

Sentiment Reverses

The Worldwide Sentiment Index has reversed on increased media optimism around Covid-19.

Coronavirus Wordwide Sentiment

The index is close to completing a major technical criteria for signaling a bullish reversal - a set of two higher highs (HH) and higher lows (HL).

This is a strong marker the index could be starting a new uptrend. A close above -31 would provide further assurance.

Sentiment has improved, in part, due to lockdown measures easing, as reflected in the fall in news co-mentioning “stay at home” reported by our monitor.

Coronavirus Stay at Home

Further, the development of the drug Remdesivir and heightened expectations of a breakthrough on the vaccine front may also have contributed to an improvement in sentiment.

About half a dozen vaccine prototypes are now embarking on human testing trials, including one developed by an Italian-U.S. team that was successful in creating an immune response in animal trials.

In a reflection of this increased vaccine chatter, the relevant topic inside the monitor has risen to a 2-month high.

Coronavirus Vaccine

This is a positive sign for an actual breakthrough given research shows changes in news analytics often precede real-world events.

It's not all Sunshine and Optimism

If there is a blackspot pleading caution it is rising fears of a ‘second wave’, reflected in the peaking on May 4 of the relevant news monitor topic chart. So take heed and stay safe!

Coronavirus Second Wave

Timing the Turns

It has been a volatile year for markets but what if traders could better time the ups and downs and actually benefit from the volatility?

Earlier on in the pandemic RavenPack investigated how it could help investors anticipate major sell-offs and one of the things it found was that a rise in stories reporting insiders selling their holdings provided an early warning of the coronavirus market crash in February.

Insider Trading Prior to Coronavirus Sell Off

Insiders are company executives who own shares in the company they work for. When they buy or sell these shares they have to register it with the SEC, whereupon the information is made public. News stories about insider transactions are then ingested by our platform.

Interestingly, further research has also uncovered the same effect when the S&P 500 bottomed on March 23, except in this case it was a rise in insiders buying that provided the warning markets were about to turn.

Insider Trading After Coronavirus Sell Off

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