Apple Needs Good News From WWDC To Match Price Momentum

Positive news is definitely needed by Apple because sentiment momentum has lagged price over the last month or so.

Figure 1 below shows the relative strength indicators (RSI) of Apple’s sentiment, derived from RavenPack News Analytics, against price RSIs. As you can see, shorter-term price momentum spiked into overbought territory late May and this wasn’t fully supported by a run higher in sentiment strength. That short-term move in price momentum is reflected in the longer-term price momentum edging higher. But there’s no corresponding move in sentiment.

So, if our simple bit of analysis is to be believed, either Apple has to deliver a bunch of good news, or price momentum has to fall.

So what will Apple announce? According to Business Insider , the possible announcements are: a streaming music service, software updates for iPhones, iPads and Macs, and perhaps an update on “HomeKit” - a single app to control all the devices in the home.

Update June 9 2015. No Improvement After WWDC Keynote

Apple may have had its biggest news day yesterday since the iPhone and Apple Pay launch in September 2014, and a slight decline in share price on the day, but the gap between 90-day price and sentiment momentum has widened further (see Figure 2). Note, however, short-term price momentum has fallen significantly.

The sentiment Relative Strength Indicators are produced by finding the novelty-weighted sum of all event sentiment concerning the company each day and then calculating traditional 14-day and 90-day RSIs of this sum.