US Election 2020 Insights
Discover the latest Insights surrounding the 2020 US Presidential Elections, including Research, WhitePapers, Blogs, Infographics and more. Subscribe to receive regular US Election Updates below.
Predicting a Historic Election with News Analysis
Predicting a Historic Election with News Analysis. How well did our monitor forecast the 2020 presidential election? Joe Biden won the presidential election by 306 electoral votes to Trump’s 229. The result is very close to RavenPack’s forecast of a Biden victory by a mean of 313 votes to 225 for Trump and places our prediction within 3% of the expected nationwide result.
How News About Black Lives Matter Impacts on Trump’s Winning Chances and other Monitor Highlights
In this update, Biden’s lead narrows after he loses North Carolina but this is balanced by gains elsewhere, and how the news about ‘Black Lives Matter’ is linked to Trump’s chances of winning and the election in general.
Trump Widens Lead in Arizona; Battleground States Remain Hotly Contested; Media Attention on Trump and the Economy Impacting Walmart Stock Price
In this update, our monitor is still forecasting Biden to win the election. We look at how the race is going in key battleground states and the relationship between Walmart’s share price and the percentage of news about the economy
Trump Projected to Win Nevada, Minnesota in the Balance, AUD to Rise on Biden Win
In this update, the election monitor shows Biden still in the lead despite Nevada now forecast to fall to Trump; the swing state of Minnesota is in the balance; the monitor and the televised debate; and how the Australian Dollar is tipped to rise in the event of a Biden victory.
Shifts in Battleground States, Coronavirus & Election News Impacting Pfizer share price...
In this update, we review the all-important key marginal states where the real election will be lost or won, and look at the relationship between the Coronavirus Trending Topic on the election monitor and potential relationships with certain stocks.
Trump Projected to Win in New Hampshire, Top 13 Battleground States Analyzed, Including Projections from Other Monitors
In this update, how Trump is more likely to win New Hampshire, projections for key marginal states, and how these compare with other major election monitors.
RavenPack Enters Data Visualization Space with New Interactive Tools by ChartIQ
Press release: New collaboration brings a premium charting interface to RavenPack’s US election media monitor which showcases in-depth analysis of projections, sentiment, the influence of key topics surrounding the election, and financial market data.
Data-Driven Election Forecasts From RavenPack - and Others; The Impact of "Anger" on Winning Chances
In this update, our monitor’s assessment of Trump and Biden’s winning chances, forecasts from other major monitors, and news about “Anger” and how it impacts on different candidates’ projections.
Biden Extends Lead as N.Carolina Flips Blue and Why Traditional Polls Have Fallen Out of Favour?
In this update, our 2020 election monitor shows Biden increasing his lead with a 108 electoral college vote projected win and a look at why official opinion polls keep getting it wrong.
Forecasts From Leading Monitors, Trump’s Visceral Appeal in 2020, New Feature Allows Comparisons With Polls
In this update, the Rebublican National Convention boosted Trump’s campaign but is it enough? What are leading election monitors forecasting? A new feature on the RavenPack monitor enables comparisons with polls and 2016 projections.
Enhancements to our 2020 Electoral Monitor Enable Greater Insights and Analysis
New features allow the comparison of 2020 model predictions to official polls and 2016 projections, with visual highlights of key divergences.
Biden Still Leading, U.S. Dominated by Positive Democrat Sentiment, Biden’s Impact on Stock Sectors
In our latest election monitor update Biden increases his lead still further, the U.S. map turns blue as Democrat sentiment dominates, and an analysis of how sensitive stock sectors have been impacted by changing election expectations.
Biden Lengthens His Lead, Is Media Exposure a Good or Bad Thing? Biden Sentiment Even Higher
In this update, Biden’s lead lengthens, media exposure can be a double-edged blade, and a pattern on Biden’s sentiment chart suggests a breakout higher. Read more.
ADP Employment Miss - Forewarning in Trump Sentiment?
ADP employment change rose by 167k in July, sharply below the above 1 million expected. Could investors have foreseen the miss? We find that a decline in sentiment for Donald Trump often precedes macroeconomic misses, and today’s data was no exception. Read more here.
Trump Trims Biden's Lead, New Hampshire Swings Republican, the Dollar’s Election Decline
In this update, Trump gains New Hampshire, Texas reverts to Republican and the Dollar’s correlation with approval ratings.
Biden’s Chance of Winning Over 95%, The Impact on Financial Markets of a Democrat Win
Insights from the monitor show Biden’s lead increasing but what could a Democrat victory mean for financial markets?
Trump’s Best Bet is To Return Things to Normal, Biden Well Ahead, Florida Too Close
Read the following insights from our New US Presidential Election 2020 Media Monitor: Polls vs Sentiment, Trump or Biden, and Where does Florida stand?
New Forecasting Model by RavenPack Analyzes News to Predict the Winner of the 2020 US Presidential Election
An alternative to polls, this new approach uses sentiment analysis and media attention to forecast election results.
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