About the J.P. Morgan report on Style Timing
Style timing has always been a hot topic among institutional investors. This is supported by the evidence that factors (or styles) deliver disparate performance under different macroeconomic regimes. As an example, low volatility stocks are often expected to outperform more volatile stocks in times of recession. However, while this seems intuitive, timing factors and risk premia using a systematic approach is not easy.
In a recent report titled "A Quantitative Framework for Cross Asset Style Timing - Machine Learning, Macro and Time-Series models providing views for Portfolio Tilting", J.P. Morgan proposed a framework for style timing in cross-asset risk premia, which uses various Machine Learning techniques to generate views on expected returns. After applying the Black-Litterman model, these views were translated into tactical portfolio tilts.
To sift through hundreds of predictors, J.P. Morgan considered Machine Learning models from basic stepwise selection models and penalized regression models to ensemble models such as Random Forest and Gradient Boosting. Predictors included historical returns, macro-economic variables, flow and positioning data, J.P. Morgan surveys, and news sentiment from RavenPack.
How does JP Morgan use RavenPack sentiment data
In particular, they utilized the RavenPack event taxonomy that automatically tags news stories with various topics and groups such as economy, employment, inflation, initial offerings etc., to capture high-frequency daily sentiment. Filtering on RavenPack’s fact-level score, they were able to focus on articles that contained sentiment on outlook and expectations that can be expected to be more forward-looking.
J.P. Morgan created RavenPack predictors focusing on:
- Business & Consumer Confidence
- US Employment Sentiment
- Economic Outlook
- Inflation Outlook
- Equity Outlook
- IPO Sentiment
- Commodity Sentiment
- Corporate Credit Sentiment
- Sovereign Credit Sentiment
Where does RavenPack data provide the most value?
Access the full commentaries from Peter on the Style Timing white paper from J.P. Morgan to see more details.Request White Paper