Measuring the Emotions that led to Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine

When people’s feelings are running high, they tend to be angry, concerned, or excited. To assess the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, we created a pair of indices computing the perceived level of tension and danger as described by journalists over the past 6 months. We identified a major divergence in these emotions that possibly influenced the judgements and choices that led to the war.

Click the hot spots on the map for more details on when the indices change course.

Reports of tensions grew steadily from early September 2021 and accelerated fast after the first satellite imagery showed 100,000 soldiers and tanks stationed near the Ukrainian borders on the Russian side. However, the feeling of danger was actually eroding, as if the media conveyed the idea that Putin was bluffing - and ultimately what would turn out to be a false sense of security.

From mid-December, when Russia presented its demands to the West, to the end of January, when the United States addressed those demands, the indexes had diverged to opposite levels, but remained mostly unchanged, as if the world was waiting for Washington’s next move.

Feelings of agitation, concern, confusion, and pessimism remained high throughout February - a clear sign of the risk of war. Marking a sharp reversal, the Danger Index jumped, fueled by the breadth of the Russian military presence in the Ukrainian border, and the increased likelihood of military aggression.

By the start of the Russian invasion of Ukraine on February 20th, the Tension and Danger indexes began to converge as feelings of anger, panic, suffering, and terror took over the narrative in the media. Arguably, the divergence was the first sign of an imminent threat; the convergence of the indexes, the beginning of a war with no end in sight.

Data Dive

Using RavenPack news analytics, we systematically read articles talking simultaneously about Russia and Ukraine, both with high relevance, and build several indicators based on the “emotional language” used around them. We split the emotions into two groups:

• Emotions related to tension and worry, which we associate to the Tension Index: Agitation Anticipation Apprehension Aversion Bafflement Befuddlement Bemusement Bewilderment Concern Confusion Disapproval Discontentment Discouragement Dislike Dismay Dissatisfaction Doubt Dread Hesitation Insecurity Nervousness Pessimism Suspicion Tension Worry
• Emotions related to Fear and suffering, identified as the Danger Index and containing: Agony Alarm Anger Anxiety Bitterness Bleak Courage Cynicism Defeat Depression Desolate Despair Disappointment Disgust Displeasure Distraught Distress Exasperation Fear Ferocity Fright Frustration Fury Grief Guilt Hatred Helplessness Homesickness Horror Hostility Hysteria Indignation Insanity Irritation Loathing Misery Nostalgia Outrage Panic Paranoia Perversity Rage Regret Resentment Sadness Shame Shock Sorrow Stress Suffering Terror Vengeance Vulnerability Wrath

For more information about how we construct the indexes or to access the underlying RavenPack data, contact us at info@ravenpack.com